More than 40 of the world’s leading virologists have raised urgent concerns about the growing threat of an H5N1 bird flu pandemic, warning that the virus is rapidly evolving and drawing closer to human-to-human transmission.
In a report published Thursday in The Lancet Regional Health – Americas, the Global Virus Network (GVN) said immediate global action is necessary to prevent another health crisis on the scale of COVID-19. The scientists highlighted how the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, previously confined largely to birds, has in the past two years begun infecting mammals such as pigs and cattle, a development that could signal increased risk of spillover to humans.
Though only a few human cases have been reported so far, the virus’s mortality rate remains extremely high, killing about half of those infected. Scientists argue that this, coupled with the virus’s growing adaptation to mammals, demands urgent attention. “We are at a critical point. The virus is adapting to mammals. If it gains the ability to transmit efficiently between humans, we could face a pandemic far deadlier than COVID-19,” the report stated.
The GVN criticised the global health community for failing to adequately prepare despite widespread commitments to improve pandemic readiness following COVID-19. It pointed to weaknesses in surveillance, insufficient pandemic response plans and limited resources for early detection at the animal-human interface as key vulnerabilities.
President of the GVN, Dr. Christian Bréchot emphasised that influenza viruses are known for jumping between species. He warned that co-infection with H5N1 and seasonal flu in a single human host—particularly during intense flu seasons, could result in a viral recombination, potentially producing a strain that is highly contagious and deadly. “Such a development could be catastrophic,” he said.
To avert disaster, the scientists outlined a ten-point action plan that includes accelerating genomic data sharing to monitor mutations, boosting vaccine research and stockpiles, improving biosecurity on farms and developing robust pandemic preparedness strategies with clear testing and vaccine distribution mechanisms. The plan also calls for rapid clinical trial frameworks for emerging strains and the enhancement of local surveillance systems for early detection and quicker responses.
Greater international collaboration was emphasized as vital, with the report warning that fragmented national efforts would not be sufficient to contain what could become a global threat. While the current outbreak of H5N1 in North American dairy cows has been described as mild, virologists cautioned that the virus’s impact on animals cannot predict its potential severity in humans. “The human mortality rate remains at about 50 percent. If we underreact now, we may pay a terrible price later,” said Bréchot.
In Nigeria, where health infrastructure is already stretched by recurring outbreaks of Lassa fever, cholera, and other diseases, experts say the warning is especially timely. Dr. Ifeanyi Okeke, a public health virologist based in Abuja, urged Nigerian authorities to enhance surveillance efforts, particularly at high-risk zones such as live bird markets, pig farms and abattoirs. “Nigeria must urgently strengthen surveillance at the animal-human interface. We cannot afford to be caught unprepared,” he said.
Dr. Okeke also called on the Federal Government to collaborate with international health agencies to ensure Nigeria is not left out of efforts around vaccine stockpiling and genomic monitoring.
The GVN concluded its report by stating that while it is impossible to predict if or when H5N1 might trigger a pandemic, the current evidence clearly justifies immediate, coordinated, and global action. “The clock is ticking. Complacency now could cost millions of lives later,” the scientists warned.
