The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (NCDC) has launched a pioneering toolkit designed to strengthen disease surveillance and forecast outbreaks, positioning the country for a more proactive public health response.
The launch also featured the unveiling of a Vulnerability Matrix and an Integrated Monitoring and Evaluation Framework, marking a major step in Nigeria’s effort to reinforce epidemic preparedness through data-driven, cross-sectoral collaboration.
Speaking at the launch in Abuja, the director-general of NCDC, Dr. Olajide Idris, described the new tools as a major milestone in Nigeria’s epidemic intelligence architecture. Represented by the director of special duties at the NCDC, Dr. John Oladejo, he said the toolkit responds to the urgent need for timely and integrated disease intelligence across the human, animal and environmental health sectors.
“This toolkit is our response to that challenge,” he said, noting that the development of the tools was catalysed by findings from the 2023 Joint External Evaluation (JEE), which highlighted significant gaps in the country’s existing surveillance systems. He added that the framework would serve as a foundation for a climate-smart early warning system, powered by data and cross-sector insights.
“We are moving towards a system that can predict outbreaks before they escalate – saving lives, protecting livelihoods and preserving economic stability,” Idris stated.
The toolkit was developed by the NCDC in collaboration with Data.FI, a U.S. government-supported project led by Palladium International, alongside strategic partners such as the Federal ministries of Health, Environment and Agriculture; the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NiMet); the World Health Organisation (WHO); Resolve to Save Lives and academic institutions.
Country director of Data.FI Nigeria, Otse Ogorry explained that the project was born out of a desire to rapidly address the JEE’s finding that Nigeria lacked a functional multi-sectoral early warning system. He said the framework allows stakeholders to forecast disease outbreaks based on environmental triggers like rainfall, flooding and heatwaves – events increasingly linked to disease patterns due to climate change.
“For example, spikes in rainfall can signal potential cholera outbreaks, while heatwaves may indicate heightened risk for cerebrospinal meningitis,” Ogorry said. “The goal is to enable public health agencies to act before diseases take hold – shifting from reactive to preventive response models.”
Ogorry emphasised that the framework aligns with Nigeria’s One Health strategy, which integrates data from human, animal and environmental health sectors to manage shared health risks more effectively. He said initial implementation revealed challenges in harmonising data-sharing systems and aligning agency priorities, but these were overcome through sustained engagement and coordination under NCDC’s leadership.
“We had to bring together the ministries of Environment, Livestock Development and Health. Initially, collaboration was difficult due to differing mandates and data systems, but we eventually found common ground,” he said. “This toolkit now belongs to the Nigerian government. It will be revised periodically to reflect emerging realities.”
According to Ogorry, the system has already been piloted nationally and tested in Nasarawa State and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), with feedback from stakeholders used to fine-tune its features. He also noted its interoperability with the Surveillance Outbreak Response Management and Analysis System (SORMAS), Nigeria’s digital disease surveillance platform, which will strengthen early detection and response.
Director of veterinary public health and epidemiology at the Federal Ministry of Livestock and Development, Dr. Samuel Anzaku commended the inclusivity of the development process. He said the collaborative workshops, held in multiple locations including Lagos and Abuja, created a sense of ownership and ensured that the final product addressed both technical and field-level realities.
“This is not just another project – it’s a government-owned framework that can be adapted to meet sector-specific needs, especially for tackling zoonotic diseases and other emerging health threats,” he said. “It may not solve every challenge in the system, but it certainly gives us a structured pathway to respond more effectively.”
Also speaking, director of surveillance and epidemiology at the NCDC, Dr Fatima Saleh highlighted the critical role of interagency collaboration and community involvement. She said Nigeria’s progress in surveillance and epidemic preparedness could not have been achieved without the joint effort of technical institutions, policy makers and grassroots actors.
“The work we do at the NCDC is not a one-man show. It’s a demonstration of integrated, multi-sectoral partnerships that have helped us strengthen our International Health Regulations (IHR) core capacities,” she said. “As we move forward, we must prioritise inclusivity in our interventions – because the more communities feel involved, the more sustainable our solutions become.”
Saleh said the new tools would enhance Nigeria’s capacity to prepare for pandemics and mitigate the impact of public health emergencies, particularly in vulnerable communities. She urged all stakeholders to remain committed to the full implementation and adaptation of the framework across regions.
Public health experts at the event praised the initiative as a model for low- and middle-income countries aiming to enhance pandemic preparedness through climate-sensitive, data-driven and collaborative systems.
The launch concluded with a unified call for strong political will, strategic investment and continuous refinement of the toolkit to ensure it remains responsive to Nigeria’s evolving health landscape.
