When the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) initiated the National Broadband Plan (NBP) for 2020-2025, it had a modest projection of achieving 70 per cent penetration by the end of 2025. As of 2020, the penetration stood at about 32 per cent, according to NCC. With a projection of 70 per cent, it seemed attainable if all conditions were favorable. By April 2024, penetration had reached 43 per cent, leading analysts to believe that achieving 70 per cent by 2025 may be unrealistic.
Industry players’ concerns stem primarily from funding issues, especially in a period when Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) are dwindling, foreign exchange is scarce, and exchange rates are rising. These factors contribute to a palpable fear that the envisioned growth may be far off. However, the government remains optimistic about reaching the projected 70 per cent penetration by 2025, mainly due to the advent of satellite broadband technology, which is considered disruptive and capable of making a significant difference.
The government believes that if the ongoing fibre optic ring construction comes online, it will propel growth beyond the 70 per cent projections by 2025. The National Broadband Plan (NBP 2020-2025) aims to address Nigeria’s significant broadband penetration gap, targeting a 70 per cent broadband penetration and 90 per cent population coverage by 2025.
To improve the nation’s low internet connectivity, recent plans to expand the existing infrastructure by an additional 90,000 kilometers (km) of fibre optic cables will be a significant boost. Upon completion, this project will increase Nigeria’s fibre optic cable length from its current 35,000 km to approximately 125,000 km, placing Nigeria as Africa’s third-largest terrestrial fibre optic backbone, behind South Africa and Egypt.
As of April 2024, broadband connections maintained an upward trend, with a slight increase of 1.0 per cent month-on-month and 2.5 per cent year-on-year, reaching 94.4 million. According to NCC data, mobile broadband accounts for over 99 per cent of Nigeria’s broadband connections due to the convenience and relatively low cost of acquiring mobile lines. Consequently, the sustained growth in active mobile lines has contributed to the modest rise in broadband connections, increasing the penetration rate slightly to 43.5 per cent in March from 43.1 per cent the previous month.
FDIs are on a steady decline, affecting growth in the sector, and the Association of Licensed Telecommunications Operators of Nigeria (ALTON) has expressed concern. As indicated by last year’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report highlighting a decline in FDI, ALTON chairman Gbenga Adebayo fears this trend may persist. The dynamics of the exchange rate are influencing many aspects of the industry, impacting the expansion of network infrastructure and potentially leading to further declines in FDIs, which could adversely affect the performance of operators.
Encouragingly, a World Bank report states that every 10 per cent increase in broadband penetration can enhance a country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by at least 4.6 per cent. Motivated by this, the government has prioritised expanding broadband services in Nigeria to tackle various socio-economic challenges, such as economic growth, broadening the tax base, and enhancing digital literacy and educational standards.
This urgency led to the establishment of a second National Broadband Plan (NBP 2020-2025) after successfully reaching about 25 per cent penetration with the first plan (NBP 2013-2018). The NBP 2020-2025 has ambitious objectives, including achieving internet speeds of 15Mbps in rural areas and 25Mbps in urban areas by 2025. Additionally, it aims to interconnect 90 per cent of all Local Government Areas by fiber, attain 70 per cent population penetration, ensure that 100 per cent of tertiary institutions are within 5km of a fiber Point of Access, reduce the average cost of data to N390/Gb or less, and establish at least one local assembly or manufacturing plant for smart devices within Nigeria.
As of March 2024, the internet subscriber base stood at 164,368,292, with GSM accounting for 163,895,185, ISPs 213,876, Voice Over Internet Protocol (VoIP) 238,139 and fixed/cable connections 21,092. There are currently 255 ISPs, including Spectranet Ltd, Astramix Ltd, VDT Comms Ltd, Cobranet Ltd, Ngcom Ltd, MainOne (an Equinix Company), Hyperia Ltd, I-World Networks Ltd, Inq. Digital Nigeria Ltd (formerly Vodacom), Galaxy Backbone Limited, Dotmac Technologies Ltd, Radical Tech Network Ltd, Cyberspace Network Ltd, Suburban Broadband Ltd, IPNX, Tizeti Network Ltd, among others.
The International Telecommunications Union (ITU) believes that artificial intelligence (AI) may be the elixir for massive broadband penetration. In its report “The State of Broadband 2024: Leveraging AI for Universal Connectivity,” ITU highlights how emerging technologies are revolutionising decision-making and service provision across sectors like government, education, healthcare and finance.
The report also identifies challenges associated with AI and other emerging technologies, such as energy consumption, misinformation, reinforcement of biases and gender discrimination. ITU Commissioners focused on mitigating the risks of emerging technologies while maximising the benefits. Founder and president of Grupo Carso and co-chair of the commission Carlos Slim emphasised that recent advancements in data, computing power, and algorithms are driving innovative services and it is crucial to redesign talent and retrain workers in digital skills to maximise these benefits.
Despite increasing overall Internet use, an estimated 2.6 billion people worldwide remain offline, reinforcing persistent digital divides affecting women and people in lower economic development countries. The elderly and people with disabilities are among other groups being left behind. ITU secretary-general and co-vice chair of the commission Doreen Bogdan-Martin stressed the fundamental importance of broadband in ensuring everyone benefits from digital technologies. AI and other emerging technologies can help achieve universal meaningful connectivity, but it is crucial to ensure this happens responsibly for people and the planet.
The ITU broadband commission reviewed progress on its 2025 advocacy targets, comprising seven objectives for broadband development and universal connectivity. While one target for mobile broadband affordability is close to being achieved, gender equality in access to broadband has been realized in some countries, though not globally. The commission noted that AI and emerging technologies can drive progress on broadband and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), but balancing the promotion of AI benefits while managing the challenges is a key task for policymakers racing to catch up with the implications of these technologies.
UNESCO director-general and co-vice chair of the commission Audrey Azoulay highlighted the need to address the risks faced by those online through better governance of digital platforms, ethical use of AI, and massive upscaling in digital skills, including media and information literacy. The report reviews how AI solutions can accelerate progress on broadband advocacy targets aimed at getting everyone online and achieving the UN SDGs.
Rwanda’s Minister of Information Communication Technology and Innovation, Paula Ingabire emphasised that emerging technology trends like AI are anticipated to add trillions to the global digital economy. However, harnessing AI to revolutionise broadband access and other services and boost productivity will require massive investments in building blocks like power, connectivity and computing resources, particularly in emerging economies.
While Nigeria faces significant challenges in achieving its ambitious broadband penetration targets, the government’s focus on expanding infrastructure, leveraging emerging technologies like AI and addressing socio-economic issues through improved connectivity holds promise for the nation’s digital future. The success of these initiatives will depend on continued investment, effective policy implementation and collaboration among stakeholders to overcome the barriers to achieving universal meaningful connectivity.
