When fully implemented, fifth-generation (5G) technology and services were expected to transform the telecommunications landscape in Nigeria like nothing before it. The former Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Prof. Isa Pantami boasted of this on the eve of the 5G auction three years ago, speaking with certainty and confidence.
Like a relay race, the chief executive of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), Prof. Umar Danbatta took the baton and began spirited advocacy, building a frenzy around the auction. Pantami had allegedly misled President Muhammadu Buhari, the Federal Executive Council (FEC) and the country at large, convincing them that 5G would bring incredible internet speed, akin to lightning, and transform lives.
The first auction saw MTN and Mafab Communications Limited (a special purpose vehicle) winning two available lots at a bid price of $273.6 million each. A little over a year later, Airtel Africa acquired a third lot, completing the experimental trio of 5G license holders.
However, this is where the story of 5G seems to end. Even within the NCC, there is no one who can, in all sincerity, proudly say that 5G exists in any significant capacity. If it exists at all, it is barely visible and seemingly accessible to an insignificant fraction of the population.
The license beneficiaries themselves speak about it in subdued tones, perhaps viewing their investment as a “bad market,” as the saying goes in local parlance. Elsewhere in Africa, some countries are making strides with 5G, though none have fully achieved meaningful milestones. Still, their efforts suggest they are heading towards victory in this race—unlike Nigeria.
India’s example is exemplary, and many countries could benefit from studying how India achieved its milestones, particularly given its population of over 1.428 billion. The Indian regulator created a business model allowing bid winners to stagger license fee payments over 10 years, understanding that 5G infrastructure and equipment are not easy or inexpensive to deploy. Operators in India appreciated this approach.
In contrast, the people who midwifed 5G in Nigeria seemed more focused on raising funds for the government, with some consultants allegedly benefiting handsomely from commissions. Now, neither the license holders nor the consumers they are supposed to serve have much to show for all the efforts.
While consumers continue to wait in a dilemma for the promised services, the NCC, on September 19, 2024, announced in Lagos yet another gamble: the introduction of ‘Wi-Fi 6’. This, they claimed, would bridge the digital divide and deliver “amazing” internet speeds.
Globally, Wi-Fi 6 is not new. It has taken root in countries like the United States, South Korea, Canada and the UK, among others. The International Telecommunications Union (ITU) created workable templates for its adoption, some of which have been modified by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in the U.S. The question now is whether the regulator in Abuja is prepared to manage Wi-Fi 6 for the benefit of consumers. Will it be another overhyped project, as we saw with 5G?
At the event on September 19, 2024, participants expressed reservations about the potential success of Wi-Fi 6 in Nigeria. When the NCC conducted the 5G auction, it was celebrated like a grand bazaar, with three companies participating and bidding starting at $199.37 million, slightly above the reserve price of $197.4 million (N75 billion). After 11 rounds of bidding, the auction ended at $273.6 million per lot, with MTN Nigeria Communications Plc (MTN) and Mafab Communications Limited (Mafab) emerging as the preferred bidders.
The preferred bidders were required to pay the winning bid price, less their deposit, by February 24, 2022. MTN paid an additional $15.9 million to secure Lot One (3500-3600 MHz), while Mafab was assigned Lot Two (3700-3800 MHz) without extra cost. Mafab also had to acquire a Unified Access Service License for an additional fee of N374.6 million (about $905,000 at the time).
According to the information memorandum (IM), the awarded spectrum has a 10-year validity period. Licensees were required to roll out services in at least one state in each geo-political zone within the first two years of the license, expanding to six more states in the third to fifth years. By the sixth to 10th years, the technology was expected to be fully deployed nationwide, with a minimum of five sites per state.
The Federal Government earned $820.8 million from auctioning 5G licenses. Pantami had told Buhari that 5G would be a game-changer, claiming it would significantly improve Nigeria’s telecommunications sector. Yet, the story of 5G hasn’t advanced much beyond the auction.
Now, with the introduction of Wi-Fi 6, Nigeria may be looking at a similar situation. Wi-Fi 6 operates on the 5925–7125 Megahertz (MHz) band and is designed to deliver optimised performance for next-generation use cases. Wi-Fi relies on access to radio frequency spectrum, and a lack of available spectrum could threaten the future performance and functionality of Wi-Fi technologies.
Recognising this, policymakers are expanding Wi-Fi spectrum access, with a focus on the 5925–7125 MHz frequency band. The ITU argues that opening this band to Wi-Fi will enable a wide range of new use cases. Coupled with expanded broadband access via fiber or satellite, this could deliver affordable, versatile connectivity, making Wi-Fi a key force multiplier for the digital economy.
The ITU highlights that Wi-Fi 6 is already delivering socio-economic benefits in many countries. Allowing access to the 6 GHz band would maximise the value of this spectrum, while the prospect of using 6 GHz for mobile services (IMT) remains uncertain, with no equipment yet available for commercial deployment.
In real-world scenarios, Wi-Fi 5 typically provides speeds between 300 Mbps and 1.7 Gbps. By contrast, Wi-Fi 6 can deliver speeds ranging from 600 Mbps to 4.8 Gbps or more. Wi-Fi 6, also known as 802.11ax, replaces the 802.11ac (Wi-Fi 5) standard and is designed to connect multiple devices simultaneously with greater efficiency.
However, not all devices can benefit from Wi-Fi 6. For instance, older iPhones and laptops may not support it, though Wi-Fi 6 routers remain compatible with older devices, even if users can’t access its full potential.
At the NCC Stakeholders Consultative Forum on Emerging Technologies in Lagos, executive commissioner, Abraham Oshadami noted that “Wi-Fi 6 represents a significant leap in wireless technology,” supporting more devices with faster speed and greater reliability. He emphasised that this is particularly strategic in a world increasingly dominated by the Internet of Things (IoT), where everything from smart homes to industrial systems depends on robust wireless connectivity.
Oshadami also stated that deploying Wi-Fi 6 in the lower 6 GHz band isn’t just about faster internet; it’s about enabling the next generation of technological innovation and economic growth. He cited the African Telecommunications Union’s (ATU) decision to adopt the lower 6 GHz for Wi-Fi applications, a victory that Africa took to the World Radiocommunications Conference (WRC-23).
Although it is unclear when Wi-Fi 6 services will be launched and what the licensing process will look like, there are indications that licensing may be flexible. The question on everyone’s lips, however, is whether this will follow the same disappointing trajectory as 5G.
Only time will tell.
