Nigeria’s food insecurity will get worse by 2025, when over 33 million Nigerians will be food insecure, a nutrition analysis has revealed.
The report, Cadre Harmonisé led by the Government of Nigeria and supported by partners, warns of deteriorating food security in Nigeria, with 33.1 million people projected to face high levels of food insecurity during the next lean season (June-August 2025). This represents an alarming increase of 7 million people compared to the same period last year, driven by economic hardship, record-high inflation, climate change impacts and persistent violence in the northeastern states.
Between October and December 2024, approximately 25.1 million people are likely to experience food insecurity, even during the peak of the harvest season. Among them, 3.8 million live in the northeastern states – a figure projected to rise to 5 million by 2025.
Nationally, the number of people facing Emergency levels (Phase 4) of food insecurity is also expected to increase. While no populations have been classified as ‘Catastrophe (Phase 5),’ those in ‘Emergency (Phase 4)’ are anticipated to rise from 1 million during the 2024 lean season to 1.8 million in 2025, marking an 80 per cent increase.
Approximately 5.4 million children and nearly 800,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women across the most affected states – Borno, Adamawa and Yobe in the northeast; Sokoto, Katsina and Zamfara in the northwest – are at risk of acute malnutrition or wasting. Of these, 1.8 million children could face severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and require urgent nutrition intervention.
Nigeria’s food insecurity crisis is exacerbated by several factors, notably economic hardship and record-high inflation, which has reached 40.9 per cent for food and 34.2 per cent for all items as of June 2024. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the price of beans in October 2024 was 282 per cent higher than the previous year, while local rice saw a 153 per cent increase. These economic shocks are attributed to factors such as the continued devaluation of the Naira against the US dollar, external economic influences, and last year’s discontinuation of the fuel subsidy.
Other major drivers of current and projected food insecurity include climate change impacts, particularly flooding, which raises the costs of both food and essential non-food commodities and services. Between October 1-15, 2024, the FAO recorded that floods affected over 9.2 million people and submerged 4.5 million hectares, including 1.6 million hectares of farmland. Analysis indicates that the resulting annual production losses for maize, sorghum and rice in flooded areas could total 1.1 million tonnes – enough to feed 13 million people for a year, with financial losses nearing USD 1 billion.
Persistent violence in the northeastern states of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe (BAY) hinders food availability and access. Additionally, armed banditry and kidnappings in the northwest and farmer-herder conflicts in north-central states, including Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto, Kaduna, Benue, Plateau and Niger, aggravate the ongoing economic struggles.
Trends in the northeast have shown persistently high or rising food insecurity levels since 2018, with at least 4 million additional people requiring urgent assistance each lean season since June 2020. The northwest and parts of the north-central region now exhibit critical levels of severe food insecurity and malnutrition, marking them as hunger hotspots that urgently demand action from decision-makers.
Representing Dr. Nuhu Kilishi Mohammed, the director of nutrition and food security, the permanent secretary of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Dr. Temitope Fashedemi emphasised the importance of the Cadre Harmonisé in planning food and nutrition security interventions nationwide.
FAO’s representative ad interim in Nigeria and to ECOWAS, Dominique Koffy Kouacou, reiterated FAO’s commitment to supporting Nigeria, stating, “Working with our partners, FAO is dedicated to implementing durable solutions that tackle the root causes of food insecurity and malnutrition. By enhancing agri-food systems, we aim to meet immediate needs while promoting sustainable progress.”
Highlighting the ongoing issue, WFP’s country representative, David Stevenson said, “The hunger crisis in Nigeria, driven by the conflict in the northeast, requires urgent attention. Restoring peace is essential to achieving the northeast’s potential as the country’s food basket.”
UNICEF’s country representative, Ms. Cristian Munduate stressed the urgent need for action, stating, “Children are at the heart of the crisis, facing irreversible physical and cognitive consequences, and potentially even death. It is our duty to ensure that every child’s right to adequate food and nutrition is upheld.”
The United Nations calls on the Nigerian Government, donors, and stakeholders to commit resources to prevent a potential food and nutrition disaster, emphasising the need for immediate, multi-sectoral support.
The Cadre Harmonisé is a biannual initiative conducted in March and October across 26 states and the FCT. Led by the Nigerian government, with support from regional technical agencies, UN bodies, and NGOs, it provides a comprehensive analysis of current and future food and nutrition scenarios.
